The Daily Observer London Desk: Reporter- Jack Brumby
The U.S. and dozens of allies pledged more weapons, ammunition and tanks for Ukraine as a new Russian offensive gained momentum, but stopped short of promising the fighter jets Kyiv has avidly sought as the invasion nears the one-year mark.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, in Brussels this week for two days of high-level talks with allies and NATO counterparts, told reporters Tuesday’s meetings did not approve the fighter jet request, which the Biden administration fears could draw the West into a more direct conflict with Russian forces, even as he told reporters Western support for Ukraine in the fight remains strong.
“Today’s meeting comes at a critical time,” Mr. Austin told reporters. “The Kremlin is still betting that it can wait us out.”
Both Mr. Austin and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said there were clear signs Russia was mobilizing for a major new offensive in the disputed areas of southern and eastern Ukraine, even as fierce fighting continues around Bakhmut, a city of limited strategic value that has become a symbol of the state of the war for both sides.
Ukrainian officials vowed to hold the city, but there were reports that they had blown up a key bridge in the area, a possible sign a withdrawal from Bakhmut could be near.
On Tuesday, more than four dozen nations belonging to the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group again met in Brussels to plan the next stages of their support for Ukraine. One concern for the allies was that Ukraine’s forces are using ammunition faster than it can be re-supplied by the West. According to some estimates, Ukraine is firing up to 7,000 artillery shells each day, around a third of the daily amount that Russia is using, the Associated Press reported.
“Ukraine has been at this for a year. They have used a lot of artillery ammunition,” Mr. Austin acknowledged. “We’re going to do everything we can to ensure we get them as much ammunition as quickly as possible.”
Mr. Stoltenberg said Ukraine’s military needs against its larger, better-armed neighbor have evolved as the battlefield has shifted, from anti-armor and anti-air weapons early in the fight to artillery, and then to air defense systems.
“And now, over the last weeks and months, the allies have agreed to further step up significantly when it comes to heavy weaponry: armor, infantry fighting vehicles, but also main battle tanks,” he said. “We need to ensure that Ukraine gets the weapons it needs to be able to retake territory, liberate the lands and win this war and prevail as a sovereign, independent nation.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pressed hard for Western combat planes to supplement his small air force on visits to Britain, France and NATO headquarters in Belgium last week. While Ukrainian forces have performed far beyond the expectations of most experts, Russia has been mobilizing more forces and threatens to overwhelm its adversary just by the sheer weight of numbers.
Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, who is accompanying Mr. Austin on his European trip this week, said the Russians are taking heavy casualties as they continue their attack in the Donbas region. He said their progress has been slow in what he described as a “grinding war of attrition.”
“The front line is quite stable even though it’s very violent,” Gen. Milley said.
Russian losses
But with the one-year anniversary looming as a milestone for both sides, Gen. Milley said it was already clear the Putin government had badly misread the situation in deciding to invade in February 2022.
“Russia is a global pariah and the world remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience. In short, Russia has lost – they’ve lost strategically, operationally and tactically and they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield,” Gen. Milley argued.
Russia has repeatedly warned the U.S. and their allies about the huge aid flows to Kyiv. “NATO is an organization which is hostile to us and which proves this hostility every day,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told a briefing in Moscow Tuesday. “It is trying its best to make its involvement in the conflict around Ukraine as clear as possible.”
Russian forces have made limited but steady progress advancing their lines in eastern Ukraine, while bolstering their defensive lines in the south, leaving Ukrainian defense officials uncertain of where the next major thrust will come. The Zelenskyy government has been preparing its own spring offensive, hoping to build on major successes last fall that reclaimed a significant amount of territory once held by Russia and its separatist Ukrainian allies.
Russia has made “small gains” around the northern outskirts of Bakhmut, British officials said in a new intelligence assessment Tuesday. However, their advance to the south of the town has made little progress because of stiff Ukrainian defense in the area.
“Russian forces are making continuous offensive efforts, though each local attack remains on too small a scale to achieve a significant breakthrough,” UK military intelligence officials posted on Twitter. “The current operational picture suggests that Russian forces are being given orders to advance in most sectors, but that they have not massed sufficient offensive combat power on any one axis to achieve a decisive effect.”
The combatants on both sides in Bakhmut are exhibiting little of the sophisticated fire-and-maneuver tactics that NATO armies practice, Gen. Milley said.
“There’s no fancy arts of maneuver going on there. This is frontal attacks [and] wave attacks,” he said. It’s “a very significant, grinding battle of attrition with very high casualties — especially on the Russian side.”
The Russians continue to struggle with poor leadership and morale problems, he added.
“However, they do have the numbers. Whether or not they’re successful in pressing the fight still remains to be seen,” Gen. Milley said.
On Tuesday, Mr. Zelenskyy said the fighting in Bakhmut and other sections of the country’s Donetsk region has been difficult with almost constant Russian attacks. On his Telegram social media page, Mr. Zelenskyy said the Kremlin is ordering heavy attacks along the frontline despite the casualties their own troops are receiving.
“This can only be countered by extraordinary resilience and a full understanding that by defending in the Donetsk region, our warriors are defending the whole of Ukraine,” Mr. Zelenskyy said. “We are doing everything to ensure that our pressure outweighs the occupiers’ assault capabilities.”
